December 9, 2016
The bitcoin price has reached record highs lately, as geopolitical forces increasingly impact the bitcoin economy. Currency uncertainty, particularly in China and India, is stimulating dramatic increases in bitcoin transactions. Hence the soaring bitcoin price.
We could be seeing the early rumblings of a greater upheaval to come – with the inauguration of U.S. President-Elect Donald Trump – at least according to Copenhagen-based Saxo Bank’s annual “Outrageous Predictions” for the coming year.
The bitcoin boom scenario
Saxo imagines a 2017 in which US fiscal spending under Trump inflates the country’s budget deficit from $600 billion to $1.2-1.8 trillion. As a result, US growth and inflation skyrocket. This sets off a chain of events in emerging markets worldwide, particularly China. People increasingly look for alternatives to a fiat money system dominated by the US dollar. More and more merchants begin to accept bitcoin. The banking systems of China and Russia even move to accept BTC as a partial alternative to the USD. Cryptocurrencies, not being tied to any central bank, become more attractive than ever – especially bitcoin.
With the dramatic rise in popularity, the bitcoin price increases 165% to more than $2000.
Reality check. Or not.
Of course, these predictions are not Saxo Bank’s official outlook for 2017, but “events and market moves deemed outliers with huge potentials for upsetting consensus views”, as the firm described in a press release. The point is to make calls “aimed at provoking conversation on what might surprise or shock” the investing world in the year ahead. But you know what they say: Behind every great lie is a grain of truth. Perhaps the same can be said of outliers.
Fiat currencies are subject to endless cycles of booms and busts. Instability in the world increases this volatility. Add erosion of the public’s trust in governments and their institutions to the equation. Cryptocurrency begins to look like the next stage of monetary evolution.